While we are not sure if we would put much stock in the political opinions of someone who was willing to endorse Michael Bennet not that long ago, James Carville does have some interesting observations. The Democratic party is in the midst of a transitional period. Bernie Sanders has dropped out of the race and Joe Biden has the nomination all but locked up.
Now, the Democrats are turning their sights to the general election. Current polling shows that Biden is neck and neck with President Trump. In fact, there are even polls that have him in the lead. These polls are hard to trust, though. Voters on both sides of the aisle can remember Hillary Clinton’s seemingly insurmountable lead in the 2016 polls.
Democrats should also be worried about the sudden rise in Donald Trump’s approval rating. There are also polls that show a decline in his approval rating, as more and more Americans start to blame him for the slow response to the coronavirus pandemic. So where does the truth actually lie?
Trump supporters will point to the polls that are favorable to their candidate but even Fox News is not so sure. Their most recent poll shows that Trump is only notching a 49 percent approval rating. This is only the third time during his presidency that he has been unable to crack the 50 percent mark on Fox News.
Meanwhile, there is a Politico poll that gives Trump supporters some renewed hope. He is ahead of Biden by eight points in this poll and this seems to be a bit closer to the truth. If Trump is able to maintain an advantage during this moment in time, he’ll bounce back once the crisis period is over. The media is currently in an anti-Trump frenzy but that does not mean that things will stay the same forever.
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/C3WzPYfI09
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 9, 2020
Biden should be able to trounce him in the current polls but he has not been able to. This is the surest sign that he has lost a step or two. In an odd way, a sustained outbreak would actually work to Trump’s advantage. Voters that may have felt comfortable with the idea of voting against Trump will probably not feel good about leaving the country in the hands of a clearly senile candidate.
Sleepy Joe is going to have a tough time convincing voters that he will not be asleep at the wheel going forward. At best, he could serve as a figurehead and put together a team of experts. How is this any different from the current situation? During a crisis like this one, Biden’s personality is going to seem like more of a liability than a benefit.
If we can all agree that Biden is not all there right now, why would anyone want him to be at the forefront of our nation’s response to a pandemic? While there are critiques that can be made about Trump’s response, there is not much evidence to support the idea that Biden would have done much better. He can barely complete a full sentence without losing his train of thought.
Biden may appeal to some voters with his desire to return to normalcy. This may seem attractive come November if we are still in the process of trying to dig out from this catastrophic event. James Carville believes that there is going to be a Democratic wipe out if the Republicans decide to play fair. This is probably overstating things a bit.
It is hard to imagine a voter base like Trump’s allowing that to happen. Their loyalty is not in question. Even if they do not all agree with his methods right now, they are going to vote for him anyway. Why would they turn away from Trump right now, especially when the alternative is a candidate who can barely remember his own name half the time?
“I’m totally totally unimpressed by President’s Trump political powers… But if we go to post in November with anything close to a level playing field, it’s going to be a Democratic wipeout. People are not going to vote for four more years of this” pic.twitter.com/5lGPouVVTu
— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) April 9, 2020
Carville may have a point, though. There are going to be a number of hard fought races for the Senate and the White House. We can envision a universe where these battles are all titled in the Democrats’ favor. If they are able to net three seats and utilize the Biden VP candidate as a tiebreaker, they could seize control of the chambers.
Think about it this way: has a president that has presided over this sort of crisis (including the historic unemployment levels) been able to win an election outright? If Trump is able to pull this off, it would be a feat unlike any other that we have seen in the political world this century.