New Model Now Predicts Over 100,000 American Deaths by Summer

From the looks of things, we are not yet on the down slope when it comes to the proverbial curve. The number of daily deaths continues to remain high and we are wondering when we are going to receive some good news. When will we finally be able to flatten the curve and return to a semblance of normalcy?

The IMHE model that people have been relying on is beyond flawed. Can you believe that we are supposed to drop below the 1,000 deaths per day within the next three days? We think it’s fairly safe to say that won’t happen. Over 2,000 Americans died yesterday alone. IMHE thinks that we will be down to zero deaths per day by the end of June!

If the modelers were asked about these numbers, they would probably provide some answer that is linked to aggressive social distancing. On the other hand, there are a number of states that have already begin to relax their regulations. The second wave has yet to materialize and that is sure to affect predictions as well.

The IMHE estimate places the United States at 73,000 deaths by the beginning of August. Since we are already over 60,000 by the beginning of May, that estimate is going to be topped with ease. These are alarming numbers and we are going to need a new model that can provide us with some legitimate information.

By the end of the coronavirus’s “first wave” this summer, America will likely have buried close to 100,000 victims of the disease, with as many as 9 million people having become infected, according to Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University. The elite research lab, which has gained international notice for its pandemic modeling, also concluded that at least 80,000 to 90,000 Americans will be dead of coronavirus complications by mid-May

He said the aggressive social distancing measures most Americans have undertaken doubtless saved several hundred thousand lives. New cases of COVID-19, the disease that results from exposure to the coronavirus, have plateaued as a result, Vespignani said. But he warned that reopening public spaces too soon or without adequate testing and contact tracing infrastructure in place could lead to a dramatic resurgence in infections and deaths.

Network Science Institute at Northeastern University director Alessandro Vespignani believes that we will have buried at least 100,000 Americans by the time the first wave has had a chance to run its course. By mid May, 80,000 to 90,000 Americans are expected to be dead. Vespignani is also praising Americans for adhering to the social distancing measures.

Our willingness to do so has saved countless lives. Vespignani is also warning Americans against relaxing these restrictions. If we are too quick to reopen, the virus could have a dramatic resurgence. Proper testing measures and contact tracing infrastructure must be put into place first.

According to his estimates, we would have buried half a million Americans by now if we had carried on with our normal routines. As is, we are still a cinch to reach 100,000 before too long. There are even some researchers who believe that we are past the point of thinking of the virus as a “wave”.

This could simply be our new normal. The death toll will remain high for weeks and months to come. America has not seen a week below 1,000 deaths since the beginning of March. Trevor Bedford is a researcher in the Seattle region who was able to detect the silent spread of COVID-19 and he believes that social distancing will only be able to provide us with a plateau.

The consistent decline in daily cases has yet to take place and no one can seem to tell us when it will. Different states are also taking different approaches. This causes a cumulative effect that looks like more of a plateau than a decline. The epidemic curve may never have a downside. America is likely to experience increases and declines in the number of new cases, depending on the steps that are taken in each region.

Some states may get spooked when it is time to reopen and decide to step away from their initial plans. Americans clearly have a high level of risk tolerance when it comes to their daily activities. These re-openings are certainly going to put that to the test. It is difficult for Americans to carry out the social distancing guidelines without experiencing any form of economic hardship.

Those of us who still have an income are able to save our money because there is nothing to spend it on. Everyone’s ability to continue with the social distancing guidelines will hinge on their ability to continue paying their bills. Fortunately, Congress has brought everyone some time with their initial coronavirus relief bill. There is already speculation about a second stimulus package that is coming down the pike but it remains to be seen as to whether it is actually going to be passed.

While President Trump is definitely right about things potentially being way worse, he can’t feel good about the numbers that are being presented to him each day. How can a sitting president feel good about their chances for re-election when they are going to be held responsible for a six figure death toll? It’s not a wonderful talking point for any president, no matter how you are willing to slice it.