We are unsure what to think of this latest development. Are people trying their best to grasp at straws or is this information more meaningful than that? It’s hard to tell at the current moment. While there is part of us that expects a Biden victory come November, it’s hard to count Trump out. According to the information on hand, a major shift could take place at any time.
Betting markets are not always the best indicator when it comes to political races. King Banaian feels differently. He defends their usage and believes that they are valuable indicators. RealClearPolitics has an aggregation that will provide Trump supporters everywhere with some much needed hope. Democrats may want to start hitting the panic button now.
Tim Pool is a journalist who believes that the Democrats are going to be undone by the protests but its hard to see that coming to fruition. Voters are not going to be inclined to blame these issues on the president who is coming in or the president that was in office before. Trump is banking on his voters’ willingness to do just that, though.
That sound you hear from Democrats?
Thats them realizing they done fucked up by supporting the riots, I mean "peaceful protests" pic.twitter.com/65LjGZAJPt
— Tim Pool (@Timcast) August 31, 2020
The wager markets all have Biden in the lead right now but his lead is not as commanding as the mainstream media reports would suggest. Pool and other journalists want to pin the shift on the the protesters but that doesn’t make much sense. The polls show that this did not make a difference to anyone as recently as last week.
For much of the year, bettors were of the belief that the incumbent president would win. In most instances, this is the safest possible bet. Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush are the only elected presidents of the past 50 years who were unable to gain re-election. The wage markets weren’t even rattled by the COVID-19 pandemic. Once the protests erupted, these markets saw a shift.
The meltdowns led to a severe reversal of Donald Trump’s fortunes. The COVID-19 crisis is also here to stay and will be a part of our lives for years to come. Anyone who is looking for a return to normalcy is not going to believe in the current president. Even during the best of times, he is not exactly known for being calm and peaceful.
Bettor perceptions have changed and its time to reckon with them. If we had to guess, COVID-19 has a lot to do with it. Americans are getting used to the idea that there will be long term ramifications. At first, it seemed like the pandemic might come and go but the summer we just experienced laid waste to that idea. The Democrats didn’t even bother to touch on the riots at their national convention.
Anyone who wants the riots to be the problem is engaging in wishful thinking. Trump’s insistence on “law and order” might be helping his polling numbers, however. The Republican national convention also allowed the party to provide more in depth policy explanations. This is where the Democrats were lacking in their messaging.
If you’re going to bet at the moment, you have a decision to make. Are you betting with America or against it? The betting markets are starting to grasp the stakes here and of course, the American people have as well. The election is the leftists’ left chance to avoid an eight year Trump presidency. Meanwhile, the right is worried about Biden drifting further to the left if he is elected.
Each side has their concerns and the terms of engagement have been set. Everyone is retreating into their ideological corners. The Biden voters seem to grasp the simple lesson that they should have learned during the last election: it is not over until it is over. The amount of pre-election gloating that is taking place this time around seems to have decreased significantly. Perhaps Trump will still have a chance to rally after all? Only time will tell.